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ulta beauty shares poised for growth amid stabilizing market share trends

UBS analysts have identified a favorable outlook for Ulta Beauty, citing improving market share trends and reduced competitive pressures. With Ulta's market share stabilizing at around 14% and a strong loyalty program boasting 44.6 million members, the firm believes the risk-reward for Ulta shares is skewed to the upside. Additionally, concerns over tariff impacts are minimal, as major brand partners maintain diverse manufacturing operations.

ubs maintains buy rating on ulta beauty with target price of 490

UBS has maintained a Buy rating on Ulta Beauty, setting a price target of $490, while the stock currently trades at $380.23. Analysts noted signs of market share stabilization and manageable tariff impacts, despite some downward revisions in earnings expectations. While Ulta reported strong earnings, guidance for 2025 and 2026 suggests potential challenges ahead, prompting mixed reactions from other analysts regarding the company's competitive landscape and strategic initiatives.

off-price retailers outperform department stores in sales and profitability trends

Off-price retailers are significantly outperforming department stores in sales and profitability, capturing 59.5% of total sales and 76.6% of profits, according to UBS. The firm rates TJX Companies and Burlington Stores as Buys, while maintaining Sell ratings on Macy’s, Dillard’s, and Kohl’s due to weaker growth prospects. Despite a valuation premium, UBS expects off-price retailers to continue their strong performance and gain market share.

off-price retailers outperform department stores in sales and profitability trends

Off-price retailers are significantly outperforming department stores in both sales and profitability, capturing 59.5% of total sales and 76.6% of profits, according to UBS. The firm maintains Buy ratings for TJX Companies and Burlington Stores, while remaining bearish on department stores like Macy’s and Kohl’s due to weaker growth prospects. Despite higher valuations for off-price stocks, UBS expects their strong fundamentals to sustain this trend.

Ulta Beauty Surpasses Earnings Expectations and Raises Full-Year Outlook

Ulta Beauty exceeded fiscal third-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $5.14 per share against the anticipated $4.54, and revenue of $2.53 billion, surpassing the $2.50 billion forecast. The retailer raised its full-year sales outlook to $11.1-$11.2 billion and earnings to $23.20-$23.75 per share, despite earlier concerns about cooling demand and increased competition. Shares rose approximately 10% in after-hours trading, although the stock is down about 19% year-to-date.

retailers face challenges as holiday shopping season begins with mixed results

As the holiday shopping season approaches, retailers face a stark divide in performance, with Target, Kohl’s, and Best Buy reporting disappointing results, while Walmart and Abercrombie & Fitch thrive. Consumers are increasingly selective, prioritizing value and practical gifts, leading to cautious spending amid ongoing inflation. Despite a projected increase in holiday spending, retailers are bracing for challenges, with some already adjusting forecasts downward.
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